Foldable Phones: Break Beyond the Barrier?
Recently, IDC, a research organization, released a report forecasting the global smartphone market in 2024. The report suggests that the smartphone market will return to growth, with foldable phones expected to grow by 37% year-on-year. It is estimated that shipments will reach 25 million in 2024. Some analysts believe that the device replacement cycle and growing demand in emerging markets may drive the overall market recovery. Additionally, the trend of users willing to pay more for higher-end products may encourage users to replace their devices more frequently.
TrendForce predicts that foldable phone shipments will reach 17.7 million units in 2024, resulting in an 11% growth. Market penetration is expected to rise to 1.5% by 2025 or exceed 2%.
Currently, Apple has not entered this market segment, while the Android camp sees foldable phones as a major strategy to maintain product differentiation. As the relevant technology matures, more manufacturers are likely to enter the foldable phone market, promoting its further popularisation.
Foldable phones can currently be categorised as either large or small folding programs. The large folding market positioning is usually higher. However, due to differences in image, lifespan, and other factors between the flagship and straight plates, coupled with high prices, users have not evaluated it highly. To address this, manufacturers are working to comprehensively improve the product power of large foldable devices and promote their development as all-round flagships.
According to IDC's published data, the strategies employed by relevant manufacturers have yielded positive results. The market share of large foldable phones in the foldable phone market reached 68.1% in 2023, a significant increase from the previous year.
Small foldable phones, which are positioned relatively lower, have a similar selling price and software adaptation to straight plate models. They also come with fashion attributes, making them quite popular among some users. The small size and affordable price of foldable phones have significantly reduced the threshold for consumers to experience them.
Despite the high expectations for this segment of the market, the popularity of these products still faces some bottlenecks as user demand rises. Durability remains a primary concern for foldable phones due to the unique construction of the folding screen model. Compared to straight plate models, folding screens are weaker in terms of anti-fall and anti-scratch capabilities. To overcome the long-standing perception of folding screens as fragile, manufacturers have taken a series of measures to enhance their durability.
It is important to note that some manufacturers are using non-Newtonian fluid materials to create folding screens that can effectively disperse impact forces and prevent damage to the screen. However, the application of these new materials and technologies is still being tested and verified before they can be widely adopted in the market.
From a market perspective, previous folding screens faced limitations in terms of process, yield, and cost, which increased the risk for manufacturers. As a result, some manufacturers chose not to enter the market. However, as technology has matured and costs have decreased, folding screen models have become more popular.
It is important to note that the foldable phone design program may also be a bottleneck for these products. Manufacturers must find ways to fully utilise the folding feature to provide more possibilities. This will be the next important direction for relevant manufacturers.
As related technologies continue to advance, foldable phones are becoming more durable, stable, and user-friendly. New materials, process improvements, and software optimizations will contribute significantly to the appeal of these models to a wider audience. These positive changes may attract more users to try and accept this novel product form, promoting its share of the continued growth. This, in turn, will promote the entire cell phone market to maintain positive development and bring more diversified product choices.
